Understanding risk

Evaluating risk is a three-step process.

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   Step: 1 Learn the severity

   Is the risk something serious or something mild? A risk of fever is probably a risk that many parents are willing to take. But we want to better understand a more serious risk.

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   Step: 2 Learn the likelihood

   How likely is the risk? Is the risk of something 1 in 1 million or 1 in 10? Understanding the likelihood is important in understanding risk.

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   Step: 3 Learn the unintended risks

   If you avoid a risk, are you at risk of something else? And could that other thing be worse?

The choice not to vaccinate often means a greater risk or more serious risks if your child gets sick.

Many of us want to find information on our own to learn more about vaccines. This is a great first step in being able to make confident decisions to vaccinate your child. Some of the best sources of credible information include CDC, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), American Academy of Pediatrics, American Academy of Family Physicians, Vaccinate Your Family, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, and the Mayo Clinic. Here’s information about three sources that some parents use to learn more about vaccines:

• Vaccine Information Statements (VIS): Vaccine Information Statements are given to parents at the time of vaccination. They are a good source but don’t provide information on the likelihood of a side effect happening. That said, they are a great starting point as you learn more about routine childhood vaccines. You can access them before your child’s vaccine visit at immunize.org/vis.
• Package inserts: Package inserts are documents that give information to your health care provider about vaccine dosage, storage, how to administer the vaccine, adverse events, and other information. A package insert lists every single potential side effect that came up in clinical trials—whether it is related to the vaccine or not. But inserts don’t always tell you about likelihood. Because package inserts use medical language, they can sometimes be difficult to understand for those of us who aren’t doctors. For more information, visit www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states.
• Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS): VAERS is a vaccine side effect reporting system from the CDC and the FDA. It helps track possible vaccine safety issues. Anyone can report potential side effects from their vaccines. However, a VAERS report does not always mean there is a safety issue. For example, let’s say someone gets stung by a bee on the arm after they get their vaccine. Later in the day their arm becomes sore and swollen. Since those are potential side effects of both a bee sting and a vaccine, they can’t be sure what is causing the soreness and swelling. They should report it to VAERS anyway. Reporting this helps identify potential new or unusual side effects to take action if needed. Researchers will then evaluate VAERS reports to determine whether they are related to the vaccine. Because VAERS is designed to collect reports of possible vaccine safety issues, it is not a good source of information to help understand risk.source: ¹¹

These questions can help you accurately evaluate the risk of getting a disease compared to the risk of getting the vaccine that will prevent that disease. This can help you make the best decisions for your child.

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9x: People living in the U.S. are more likely to visit the ER for a pogo stick injury than to have a severe allergic reaction to a vaccine.source: ¹² The facts tell us vaccines are safe.

• What are the risks of the vaccine?
• How severe are the risks associated with the vaccine?
• What is the likelihood the risks associated with the vaccine will happen?
• What are the risks of the disease?
• How severe are the risks associated with the disease?
• What is the likelihood that the risks associated with the disease will happen?

Once you answer those questions, you will have a clear idea of what the true risks are and understand which option is riskier. The reality is that serious side effects associated with a vaccine are extremely rare. How rare? Generally, if 1 million vaccine doses are given, only about 1–2 people have a severe allergic reaction.source: ^8,source: ⁹